By Yo Sub Kwon
Florida’s indicators of newly initiated property litigation are falling. But among residential property claims closed in 2025 with known status, 12.10% were litigated, up from 9.85% in 2022.
That apparent tension matters to carrier leaders because new-suit inflow and legacy claim inventory require different staffing, legal, and claims-operations decisions. This study assembles Florida OIR data from 2022 through 2025 to show what is entering the system, what is leaving it, and what the available evidence can actually establish.
The analysis covers personal and commercial residential property claims. It reports raw and known-status litigation rates separately, examines peril and geographic composition, compares closure-year results with OIR’s emerging loss-year view, and explains what the public data can and cannot establish about Florida’s December 2022 property insurance reforms.
- Closed claims
- -37.7%
- Litigated claims
- -8.5%
- Known-status share
- +2.3 points
Executive summary
- Closed residential property claims fell 37.7%, from 732,390 in 2022 to 456,200 in 2025.
- Litigated closures fell 8.5%, from 58,395 to 53,413. They declined much more slowly than total closed-claim volume.
- The raw litigated share rose from 7.97% to 11.71%, an increase of 3.74 percentage points.
- Among claims with reported litigation status, the litigated share rose from 9.85% to 12.10%, an increase of 2.26 points.
- Approximately 40% of the raw point increase disappears after conditioning on reported status. Unknown litigation status fell from 19.01% of closed claims in 2022 to 3.26% in 2025.
- The known-status increase was concentrated in hurricane, non-hurricane wind or hail, and other-water claims. The other five peril categories were flat or lower.
- Litigated closures became less geographically concentrated in Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties, but the tri-county region remained the dominant hotspot.
- OIR’s indicators of new litigation inflow moved down, including Legal Service of Process filings, average defense cost per claim, and Florida’s preliminary share of national homeowners suits.
- Neither the closure-year series nor one loss-year observation vintage can establish a causal reform effect.
Study design: Florida litigation data run on three clocks
Florida litigation data can be organized around three different clocks:
Clock: Loss year
What it measures
When the property damage occurred
Appropriate question
What share of a loss cohort ultimately litigates?
Clock: Suit-open year
What it measures
When litigation commenced
Appropriate question
Is new litigation inflow rising or falling?
Clock: Closure year
What it measures
When the insurance claim closed
Appropriate question
What kinds of claims are leaving carrier inventory, and what workload and expense do they represent?
This study uses the third clock. It is descriptive closure-year accounting built from OIR’s Property Claims & Litigation Report data call as published in the standalone January 2024 report and the January 2025, January 2026, and July 2026 Insurer Stability Reports.
The population is personal and commercial residential property claims, not all Florida property claims. Counts are organized by the calendar year in which a claim closed, regardless of when the loss occurred or when the claim was reported.
This study does not measure court filings, estimate the causal effect of SB 2-A, or estimate the litigation propensity of a typical claim. OIR notes that claims closed in one calendar year may include claims reported in prior years and current or prior hurricane claims.
Result 1:Litigated claims declined much more slowly than total closures
OIR’s stated statewide totals produce the following closure-year series:
| Closure year | Closed claims | Litigated | Non-litigated | Unknown status | Raw rate | Known-status rate | Reporting companies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 732,390 | 58,395 | 534,738 | 139,257 (19.01%) | 7.97% | 9.85% | 180 |
| 2023 | 658,512 | 64,351 | 541,211 | 52,950 (8.04%) | 9.77% | 10.63% | 187 |
| 2024 | 698,742 | 60,261 | 621,154 | 17,327 (2.48%) | 8.62% | 8.84% | 190 |
| 2025 | 456,200 | 53,413 | 387,931 | 14,856 (3.26%) | 11.71% | 12.10% | 170 |
Closed claims fell by 276,190 from 2022 to 2025, or 37.7%. Litigated closures fell by 4,982, or 8.5%. Policies in force grew by approximately 6% over the same window, from about 7.27 million to 7.71 million. The sharp movement was in closed-claim volume, not a parallel contraction of the market.
Raw versus known-status rates
The raw litigated rate divides litigated closures by all closed claims, including claims with unknown litigation status in the denominator.
The known-status rate divides litigated closures by the sum of litigated and non-litigated closures. It conditions on claims for which status was reported.
That distinction matters because reporting completeness improved substantially. Unknown litigation status fell from 19.01% of the closed-claim population in 2022 to 3.26% in 2025. Better status completeness mechanically raises the raw litigated share even if underlying behavior does not change.
On the raw basis, the litigated share rose 3.74 percentage points, or 46.8% in relative terms. On the known-status basis, it rose 2.26 points, or 22.9%. Approximately 40% of the raw point increase disappears after conditioning on reported status.
The known-status series is the preferred like-for-like descriptive basis. It is not corrected truth. Claims with missing status may differ systematically from claims with reported status.
Missing-status sensitivity
Without an assumption about the missing claims, the full-population litigated rate is bounded by two extremes:
| Closure year | All unknown claims assumed non-litigated | All unknown claims assumed litigated |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 7.97% | 26.99% |
| 2025 | 11.71% | 14.96% |
The ranges overlap. Public data alone therefore cannot prove that the underlying full-population litigation propensity increased.
What is established is the movement of both reported-basis series, the much slower decline in litigated closures than in total closures, and the dramatic improvement in status completeness.
Accounting decomposition
An exact accounting identity separates the 4,982-claim decline in litigated closures into:
- A negative closure-volume component of 22,021 claims
- A positive rate component of 17,039 claims
- Zero residual
In plain language, sharply fewer claims closed, which pulled the litigated count down. A larger litigated share of the smaller closing population offset most of that decline.
This is an accounting identity, not a causal decomposition. It does not identify why either component changed. Reform effects, legacy catastrophe timing, carrier mix, closure speed, reporting changes, and other factors remain observationally confounded in closure-year data.
Result 2:The increase was concentrated in wind and water perils
The qualitative conclusion is the same on the raw and known-status bases. The measured increase came from hurricane, non-hurricane wind or hail, and other-water claims.
| Peril | Raw 2022 | Raw 2025 | Raw change | Known 2022 | Known 2025 | Known change | Closed 2022 | Closed 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricane | 5.08% | 12.19% | +7.11 pts | 6.18% | 12.56% | +6.38 pts | 291,155 | 188,209 |
| Windstorm or hailstorm, non-hurricane | 10.29% | 16.44% | +6.15 pts | 13.33% | 16.93% | +3.60 pts | 172,295 | 65,114 |
| Other water | 11.56% | 15.25% | +3.69 pts | 13.11% | 15.59% | +2.48 pts | 83,298 | 44,417 |
| Accidental discharge or overflow of water or steam | 11.61% | 11.04% | -0.57 pts | 14.14% | 11.51% | -2.63 pts | 84,890 | 73,638 |
| Fire or lightning | 1.91% | 1.78% | -0.13 pts | 2.52% | 1.87% | -0.65 pts | 15,287 | 12,684 |
| All other perils | 7.16% | 6.48% | -0.68 pts | 9.30% | 6.74% | -2.56 pts | 81,788 | 71,107 |
| Falling object | 6.05% | 1.43% | -4.62 pts | 6.73% | 1.55% | -5.18 pts | 3,358 | 768 |
| Sinkhole | 20.38% | 6.84% | -13.54 pts | 23.81% | 6.97% | -16.84 pts | 319 | 263 |
The wind-or-hail and other-water increases are substantially smaller on the known-status basis than on the raw basis because those perils had large unknown-status shares in 2022.
This pattern is consistent with legacy catastrophe cohorts closing in litigated form. Florida catastrophe claims can develop slowly through late reporting, reopening, dispute, and litigation. SB 2-A was not retroactive, so pre-reform claims continued to move through the previous legal environment.
The data do not support attribution to Hurricane Ian or any other specific storm. That would require loss-year-by-peril data that OIR does not publish in this series.
Result 3:The geographic gap narrowed, but South Florida remained the hotspot
The tri-county region of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade has long carried Florida’s highest property litigation rates. Its known-status closure-year rate was nearly flat from 2022 to 2025, while rates rose elsewhere.
| Region | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Change | Litigated count, 2022 to 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tri-county, Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade | 27.50% | 25.94% | 25.27% | 27.27% | -0.23 pts | 28,653 to 20,407 (-28.8%) |
| Central Florida | 9.90% | 10.95% | 9.45% | 14.01% | +4.11 pts | 7,171 to 7,436 (+3.7%) |
| All other counties | 5.40% | 5.85% | 5.51% | 8.16% | +2.76 pts | 22,571 to 25,570 (+13.3%) |
The tri-county premium over the rest of the state narrowed from 22.1 to 19.1 percentage points. Expressed as a ratio, it narrowed from 5.1 times the rest-of-state rate to 3.3 times.
The underlying counts are essential to interpreting the change. Central Florida’s litigated closures rose only 3.7%, while non-litigated closures fell 30.4%, from 65,612 to 45,639. Policies in force grew 13.4%, from 846,647 to 959,900.
Central Florida’s rate increase was therefore driven much more by a shrinking non-litigated denominator than by rising litigated volume. The larger absolute increase in litigated closures occurred across all other counties, where the count rose from 22,571 to 25,570.
The defensible conclusion is that the geographic composition of litigated closures became less concentrated in the tri-county region. The data do not establish that litigation migrated to Central Florida. The tri-county region remained the dominant hotspot at 27.27%.
Result 4:One loss-year snapshot points in the other direction
Closure-year data answer: of the claims that closed this year, how many were litigated?
A reform evaluation needs the loss-year question: of the claims arising from a particular loss year, how many ultimately litigate?
OIR’s July 2026 report provides one observation vintage of closed HO3 claims and litigated shares by loss year:
| Geography | Loss year | Closed HO3 claims | Litigated share | OIR PDF page |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statewide | 2022 | 514,977 | 8.9% | 15 |
| Statewide | 2023 | 188,286 | 6.4% | 15 |
| Statewide | 2024 | 382,670 | 2.8% | 15 |
| Statewide | 2025 | 95,921 | 1.3% | 15 |
| Tri-county | 2022 | 49,085 | 24.1% | 15 |
| Tri-county | 2023 | 32,507 | 13.1% | 15 |
| Tri-county | 2024 | 28,375 | 7.9% | 15 |
| Tri-county | 2025 | 16,069 | 2.0% | 15 |
| Seminole, Orange, Lake, Osceola | 2022 | 71,341 | 9.3% | 16 |
| Seminole, Orange, Lake, Osceola | 2023 | 30,963 | 6.6% | 16 |
| Seminole, Orange, Lake, Osceola | 2024 | 47,623 | 3.9% | 16 |
| Seminole, Orange, Lake, Osceola | 2025 | 14,210 | 1.4% | 16 |
The reported litigated share falls monotonically for newer loss years in all three geographies. Statewide, it moves from 8.9% for 2022 losses to 1.3% for 2025 losses.
That gradient is not yet a trend.
A single observation vintage is affected by right-censoring because newer cohorts have had less time for disputes to mature into lawsuits. It is also affected by selective closure because claims already closed from younger cohorts are systematically more likely to be simpler, faster, and non-litigated.
Reading the gradient as a reform effect would be the loss-year version of the same mistake made when closure-year data are treated as new-suit inflow. Successive report vintages or underlying claim-level rows are necessary to compare cohorts at equal development ages.
The loss-year charts also cover HO3 policies only. The closure-year PCLR totals cover the broader personal and commercial residential property population. The two series are useful for understanding the clocks, but they are not directly comparable numerically.
New-litigation indicators point toward falling inflow
OIR’s July 2026 report includes several indicators of newly initiated litigation:
- Legal Service of Process filings fell 23% in 2024, 25% in 2025, and 25% year to date in 2026.
- Average defense cost per claim fell from $947.38 to $720.
- Florida’s preliminary share of national homeowners suits in Market Conduct Annual Statement data fell from 73.15% to 41.29%.
These indicators point toward declining new litigation. None is a clean causal evaluation of SB 2-A, and none describes the same population or event as the closure-year PCLR series.
The reconciliation is straightforward. New litigation can enter the system more slowly while older litigated claims continue to mature and close. Litigated claims can then become a larger share of a sharply smaller closing population.
What this means for claims organizations
The study supports an operating distinction between litigation flow and litigation stock.
The flow includes new suits, service of process, attorney involvement, and the developing litigation rates of newer loss cohorts. The stock includes open litigated claims by age, peril, geography, legal regime, procedural stage, expected closure date, and handling cost.
Carrier dashboards should show both. A reform-success view based only on new-suit volume can miss the expensive inventory still being resolved. A view based only on the share of closed claims that litigated can miss genuine improvement at the front door.
The peril results also have a capacity implication. Wind and water files account for the measured increase in litigated closure share. Staffing plans based only on incoming claim counts may understate the work if aging litigated cohorts consume more adjuster, counsel, review, and correspondence time than ordinary closures.
Claims organizations cannot use drafting technology to establish a macro litigation outcome. They can improve a controllable part of the operation: the time required to retrieve and assemble policy language, construct correspondence, apply carrier formatting, and move drafts through review. Voltaire provides AI claims letters for P&C carriers and a claims-letter workflow designed for faster drafting, more consistent review, CAT volume, and operational visibility.
The practical objective is capacity. Faster claim-letter completion and less repetitive review give experienced claims professionals more time for the difficult files that remain in inventory.
Limitations
The following limitations should travel with any use of the findings:
- Closure-year basis. Each closure year mixes loss years and claim maturities. OIR warns that closed claims include claims reported in prior years and current or prior hurricane claims.
- Changing reporting panel. The reporting-company count changes from 180 to 187 to 190 to 170. Year-to-year movements therefore mix book composition with behavior.
- Missing status may not be random. Known-status rates condition on reported status. Claims with missing status may litigate at different rates.
- 2024 reconciliation. The 2024 peril-table sum exceeds OIR’s stated statewide total by 458 closed claims. This study uses the stated statewide total.
- Population mismatch. The loss-year charts cover HO3 policies only. The closure-year totals cover a broader personal and commercial residential property population.
- Chart precision. Loss-year litigated shares are printed on OIR’s charts to one decimal place.
- No causal design. Equal-maturity loss-year development and a credible comparison group remain necessary before estimating a reform effect.
Data and reproducibility
All source documents are public reports from Florida regulators retrieved on July 25, 2026.
| Source | Data used |
|---|---|
| OIR Property Claims & Litigation Report, January 2024 | Statewide totals, peril table, and regional panel for closure year 2022 |
| OIR Insurer Stability Report, January 2025 | PCLR summary for closure year 2023 |
| OIR Insurer Stability Report, January 2026 | PCLR summary for closure year 2024 |
| OIR Insurer Stability Report, July 2026 | PCLR closure year 2025, HO3 loss-year charts, LAE, and inflow indicators |
Machine-readable extracts of the study tables and the extraction test suite are available from Voltaire Research on request at [email protected].
Technical reproducibility details
The exact source files used for extraction were retained and pinned by SHA-256 checksum.
| Source file | SHA-256 |
|---|---|
| OIR Property Claims & Litigation Report, January 2024 | 48d5228b17370c208d3d8a9342277a13ad23742821917df96e7195d694c01b81 |
| OIR Insurer Stability Report, January 2025 | 803f0e46a2e1f217ff9983b3ec8cb49bbefb6b8567154b587645d06226598628 |
| OIR Insurer Stability Report, January 2026 | 2166e87fa1e0823329a8b24a243d6cd224405c74472c3c97fc82d7474bdf62f8 |
| OIR Insurer Stability Report, July 2026 | f8e1fee20a8c0f85ac7528f706c0b6f03f9d089858a40417a8f894ce87cd1927 |
Extraction and validation safeguards
- Pinned inputs. Extraction runs used the stored source bytes so the analysis could not drift if a regulator republished a file.
- Peril-table parsing. Rows were matched by numeric signature and fixed table order, then cross-checked against peril labels.
- Row-level validation. Litigated, non-litigated, and unknown percentages had to sum to 100% within 0.02 percentage points.
- Stated statewide totals. Statewide counts came from OIR’s stated totals rather than totals reconstructed from rounded peril percentages.
- Missing stayed missing. Unknown-status claims were retained as a separate category. They were not silently assumed non-litigated or dropped.
Definitions
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Closure year | Calendar year in which the insurer closed the claim, regardless of when the loss occurred or was reported |
| Loss year | Calendar year in which the property damage occurred |
| Litigated claim | A closed claim the reporting insurer identified as involving litigation in OIR’s PCLR data call, not a count of court filings |
| Raw litigated rate | Litigated closures divided by all closed claims, including unknown status in the denominator |
| Known-status litigated rate | Litigated closures divided by litigated plus non-litigated closures |
| Unknown status | A closed claim for which litigation status was not reported |
| LAE | Loss adjustment expense, the insurer’s cost of handling and settling claims |
| LSOP | Legal Service of Process, DFS records of suits served on insurers |
| MCAS | Market Conduct Annual Statement, the NAIC data call used for the national homeowners-suit comparison |
Formula
The change in litigated closures is decomposed using:
ΔL = (C2025 - C2022) × r2022 + (r2025 - r2022) × C2025
Here, C is closed claims and r is the raw litigated rate.
Using OIR’s stated totals:
-276,190 × 7.973% = -22,021 for the closure-volume component.
+3.735 percentage points × 456,200 = +17,039 for the rate component.
The two components sum to the observed decline of 4,982 litigated closures with zero residual.
Conclusion
Florida’s indicators of newly initiated property insurance litigation are declining. Litigation also represented 12.10% of residential property claims closed in 2025 with known status, compared with 9.85% in 2022.
The first statement concerns flow into the system. The second concerns the composition of claims leaving it.
Between closure years 2022 and 2025, litigated claims declined much more slowly than total closed-claim volume. The measured increase in share was concentrated in wind and water perils. The geographic composition became less concentrated in South Florida, although the tri-county region remained the dominant hotspot. Improved status reporting explains a material part of the raw rate increase.
Neither the closure-year data nor one loss-year observation vintage supports a causal reform claim. A credible evaluation will require successive loss-year cohorts compared at equal development ages and, ideally, a defensible comparison group.
Until those data exist, the record supports a disciplined conclusion: Florida’s litigation inflow appears to be improving, while the legacy litigated inventory leaving carrier systems remains disproportionately persistent and operationally important.
